A methodology for projecting sparse populations and its application to remote Indigenous communities

© 2020, The Author(s). A new method is proposed for generating projections for sparse populations by locality, age cohort and gender. An adaptation of the cohort replacement method, the approach uses a Tobit model with varying censoring limits to model population changes by cohort. As an applied example, projections are generated for 2016 Indigenous populations in communities in regional and remote Australia, and then compared to actual 2016 Census population counts. We argue the approach has considerable potential, with the model performing well in out-of-sample projection while offering projections at a much finer-grained level of disaggregation than currently available to planners and policy-makers

Supporting urban planning of low-carbon precincts: Integrated demand forecasting

Waste is a symbol of inefficiency in modern society and represents misallocated resources. This paper outlines an on-going interdisciplinary research project entitled "Integrated ETWW demand forecasting and scenario planning for low-carbon precincts" and reports on first findings and a literature review. This large multi-stakeholder research project develops a shared platform for integrated ETWW (energy, transport, waste and water) planning in a low-carbon urban future, focusing on synergies and alternative approaches to urban planning. The aim of the project is to develop a holistic integrated software tool for demand forecasting and scenario evaluation for residential precincts, covering the four domains, ETWW, using identified commonalities in data requirements and model formulation. The authors of this paper are overseeing the waste domain. A major component of the project will be developing a method for including the impacts of household behavior change in demand forecasting, as well as assessing the overall carbon impacts of urban developments or redevelopments of existing precincts. The resulting tool will allow urban planners, municipalities and developers to assess the future total demands for energy, transport, waste and water whilst in the planning phase. The tool will also help to assess waste management performance and materials flow in relation to energy and water consumption and travel behavior, supporting the design and management of urban systems in different city contexts. © 2013 by the authors

Identifying the mechanisms underpinning recognition of structured sequences of action

© 2012 The Experimental Psychology SocietyWe present three experiments to identify the specific information sources that skilled participants use to make recognition judgements when presented with dynamic, structured stimuli. A group of less skilled participants acted as controls. In all experiments, participants were presented with filmed stimuli containing structured action sequences. In a subsequent recognition phase, participants were presented with new and previously seen stimuli and were required to make judgements as to whether or not each sequence had been presented earlier (or were edited versions of earlier sequences). In Experiment 1, skilled participants demonstrated superior sensitivity in recognition when viewing dynamic clips compared with static images and clips where the frames were presented in a nonsequential, randomized manner, implicating the importance of motion information when identifying familiar or unfamiliar sequences. In Experiment 2, we presented normal and mirror-reversed sequences in order to distort access to absolute motion information. Skilled participants demonstrated superior recognition sensitivity, but no significant differences were observed across viewing conditions, leading to the suggestion that skilled participants are more likely to extract relative rather than absolute motion when making such judgements. In Experiment 3, we manipulated relative motion information by occluding several display features for the duration of each film sequence. A significant decrement in performance was reported when centrally located features were occluded compared to those located in more peripheral positions. Findings indicate that skilled participants are particularly sensitive to relative motion information when attempting to identify familiarity in dynamic, visual displays involving interaction between numerous features

Computational and Biological Analogies for Understanding Fine-Tuned Parameters in Physics

In this philosophical paper, we explore computational and biological analogies to address the fine-tuning problem in cosmology. We first clarify what it means for physical constants or initial conditions to be fine-tuned. We review important distinctions such as the dimensionless and dimensional physical constants, and the classification of constants proposed by Levy-Leblond. Then we explore how two great analogies, computational and biological, can give new insights into our problem. This paper includes a preliminary study to examine the two analogies. Importantly, analogies are both useful and fundamental cognitive tools, but can also be misused or misinterpreted. The idea that our universe might be modelled as a computational entity is analysed, and we discuss the distinction between physical laws and initial conditions using algorithmic information theory. Smolin introduced the theory of "Cosmological Natural Selection" with a biological analogy in mind. We examine an extension of this analogy involving intelligent life. We discuss if and how this extension could be legitimated. Keywords: origin of the universe, fine-tuning, physical constants, initial conditions, computational universe, biological universe, role of intelligent life, cosmological natural selection, cosmological artificial selection, artificial cosmogenesis.Comment: 25 pages, Foundations of Science, in pres

Conservation status of a recently described endemic land snail, Candidula coudensis, from the Iberian Peninsula

Research ArticleWe assessed the distribution, population size and conservation status of Candidula coudensis, a recently described endemic land snail from Portugal. From March 2013 to April 2014, surveys were carried out in the region where the species was described. We found an extent of occurrence larger than originally described, but still quite small (13.5 km2). The species was found mainly in olive groves, although it occurred in a variety of other habitats with limestone soils, including grasslands, scrublands and stone walls. Minimum population estimate ranged from 110,000–311,000 individuals. The main identified potential threats to the species include wildfires, pesticides and quarrying. Following the application of IUCN criteria, we advise a conservation status of either “Least Concern” or “Near-threatened” under criterion D (restricted population)info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Temporal variability in large grazer space use in an experimental landscape

Citation: Raynor, E. J., Joern, A., Skibbe, A., Sowers, M., Briggs, J. M., Laws, A. N., & Goodin, D. (2017). Temporal variability in large grazer space use in an experimental landscape. Ecosphere, 8(1), 18. doi:10.1002/ecs2.1674Land use, climate change, and their interaction each have great potential to affect grazing systems. With anticipated more frequent and extensive future drought, a more complete understanding of the mechanisms that determine large grazer landscape-level distribution under varying climatic conditions is integral to ecosystem management. Using an experimental setting with contrasting fire treatments, we describe the inter-annual variability of the effect of landscape topography and disturbance from prescribed spring fire on large grazer space use in years of variable resource availability. Using GPS telemetry, we investigated space use of plains bison (Bison bison bison) as they moved among watersheds managed with variable experimental burn treatments (1-, 2-, 4-, and 20-year burn intervals) during a seven-year period spanning years of average-to-above average forage production and severe drought. At the landscape scale, bison more strongly favored high-elevation and recently burned watersheds with watersheds burned for the first time in 2 or 4 yr consistently showing higher use relative to annually burned watersheds. In particular, watersheds burned for the first time in 4 yr were avoided to lesser extent than other more frequently burned watersheds during the dormant season. This management type also maintained coupling between bison space use and post-fire regrowth across post-drought growing season months, whereas watersheds with more frequent fire-return intervals attracted bison in only the first month post-fire. Hence, fire frequency played a role in maintaining the coupling of grazer and post-fire regrowth, the fire-grazer interaction, in response to drought-induced reduction in fuel loads. Moreover, bison avoided upland habitat in poor forage production years, when forage regrowth is less likely to occur in upland than in lowland habitats. Such quantified responses of bison to landscape features can aid future conservation management efforts and planning to sustain fire-grazer interactions and resulting spatial heterogeneity in grassland ecosystems

Anatomy of avian rictal bristles in Caprimulgiformes reveals reduced tactile function in open-habitat, partially diurnal foraging species

Avian rictal bristles are present in many species of birds, especially in nocturnal species. Rictal bristles occur along the upper beak and are morphologically similar to mammalian whiskers. Mammalian whiskers are important tactile sensors, guiding locomotion, foraging and social interactions, and have a well‐characterised anatomy. However, it is not yet known whether avian rictal bristles have a sensory function, and their morphology, anatomy and function have also not been described in many species. Our study compares bristle morphology, follicle anatomy and their association with foraging traits, across 12 Caprimulgiform species. Rictal bristle morphology and follicle anatomy were diverse across the 12 species. Nine of the 12 species had mechanoreceptors around their bristle follicles; however, there was large variation in their musculature, mechanoreceptor numbers and bristle morphology. Overall, species with short, thin, branching bristles that lacked mechanoreceptors tended to forage pre‐dusk in open habitats, whereas species with mechanoreceptors around their bristle follicle tended to forage at night and in more closed habitats. We suggest that rictal bristles are likely to be tactile in many species and may aid in navigation, foraging and collision avoidance; however, identifying rictal bristle function is challenging and demands further investigation in many species

Incorporating the geometry of dispersal and migration to understand spatial patterns of species distributions

Dispersal and migration can be important drivers of species distributions. Because the paths followed by individuals of many species are curvilinear, spatial statistical models based on rectilinear coordinates systems would fail to predict population connectivity or the ecological consequences of migration or species invasions. I propose that we view migration/dispersal as if organisms were moving along curvilinear geometrical objects called smooth manifolds. In that view, the curvilinear pathways become the ‘shortest realised paths’ arising from the necessity to minimise mortality risks and energy costs. One can then define curvilinear coordinate systems on such manifolds. I describe a procedure to incorporate manifolds and define appropriate coordinate systems, with focus on trajectories (1D manifolds), as parts of mechanistic ecological models. I show how a statistical method, known as ‘manifold learning’, enables one to define the manifold and the appropriate coordinate systems needed to calculate population connectivity or study the effects of migrations (e.g. in aquatic invertebrates, fish, insects and birds). This approach may help in the design of networks of protected areas, in studying the consequences of invasion, range expansions, or transfer of parasites/diseases. Overall, a geometrical view to animal movement gives a novel perspective to the understanding of the ecological role of dispersal and migration

An annotated checklist of bryophytes of Europe, Macaronesia and Cyprus

Introduction. Following on from work on the European bryophyte Red List, the taxonomically and nomenclaturally updated spreadsheets used for that project have been expanded into a new checklist for the bryophytes of Europe. Methods. A steering group of ten European bryologists was convened, and over the course of a year, the spreadsheets were compared with previous European checklists, and all changes noted. Recent literature was searched extensively. A taxonomic system was agreed, and the advice and expertise of many European bryologists sought. Key results. A new European checklist of bryophytes, comprising hornworts, liverworts and mosses, is presented. Fifteen new combinations are proposed. Conclusions. This checklist provides a snapshot of the current European bryophyte flora in 2019. It will already be out-of-date on publication, and further research, particularly molecular work, can be expected to result in many more changes over the next few years.Peer reviewe

From Analogical Proportion to Logical Proportions

International audienceGiven a 4-tuple of Boolean variables (a, b, c, d), logical proportions are modeled by a pair of equivalences relating similarity indicators ( a∧b and a¯∧b¯), or dissimilarity indicators ( a∧b¯ and a¯∧b) pertaining to the pair (a, b), to the ones associated with the pair (c, d). There are 120 semantically distinct logical proportions. One of them models the analogical proportion which corresponds to a statement of the form “a is to b as c is to d”. The paper inventories the whole set of logical proportions by dividing it into five subfamilies according to what they express, and then identifies the proportions that satisfy noticeable properties such as full identity (the pair of equivalences defining the proportion hold as true for the 4-tuple (a, a, a, a)), symmetry (if the proportion holds for (a, b, c, d), it also holds for (c, d, a, b)), or code independency (if the proportion holds for (a, b, c, d), it also holds for their negations (a¯,b¯,c¯,d¯)). It appears that only four proportions (including analogical proportion) are homogeneous in the sense that they use only one type of indicator (either similarity or dissimilarity) in their definition. Due to their specific patterns, they have a particular cognitive appeal, and as such are studied in greater details. Finally, the paper provides a discussion of the other existing works on analogical proportions